INVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE MEETING RECAP
Economic and financial market headwinds for the next six to twelve months include a strong dollar, rising interest rates and policy uncertainty. Top tailwinds include a healthy job market, potential for fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy.
U.S. ECONOMY – Scott Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist,Equity Research
• “The pre-election outlook held that slowing population growth – resulting in slower labor input and economic growth – was the ‘new normal.’ Post-election sentiment suggests that we are going to get some fiscal stimulus, but that will likely be ineffective in boosting growth on a longterm basis due to demographic constraints.”
• “I’m not optimistic that we’ll see a big increase in GDP growth. Economists have been raising their growth forecasts for next year, but only slightly, so you’re looking at a little over 2% in 2017. We could see a quarter or two of strong growth but it’s not sustainable, unless we increase immigration or get a sharp rise in productivity growth.”